Saturday, September 10, 2016

The Cod Conundrum| "A Wicked Problem"

The Atlantic Cod has become a double-sided icon. 

In the glory days of the traditional Newfoundland fishery, it was preeminent badge of our economy and culture as  we shared our  world-famous salt Cod around the globe. There was a reason the good fish was called "King Cod" - it reigned the fisheries' throne for centuries - no other fish came close to toppling this royal piscine species.

Unfortunately, since the 1992 ban on commercially fishing Cod, it has become an icon for something else .... something terribly bad.  Cod researcher George Rose stated it succinctly when he remarked back  in 2003:  "The northern Cod has become an icon for federal mismanagement in the world."  http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/report-recommends-virtual-shutdown-of-northern-cod-fishery-1.357998

While the Cod has rebounded somewhat in the past quarter century since the moratorium, the fact is there is still a long ways to go before there is a rich abundance of our most precious resource.   The latest DFO report (2015 data) states that it has only reached 26%  of  historic levels; and there seems to be no concerted and strategic effort to power it back to its full plentitude.

This is what some researchers call "A wicked problem".  According to http://environment.geog.ubc.ca/in-cod-we-trust-cod-in-atlantic-canada/ 
The term wicked problem was coined by Rittel and Webber (1973) and was used to describe difficult planning in social policy and later related to the environment and resource management. Roberts (2000) stated that defining the problem in the beginning is a problem within itself, with disagreement from stakeholders the main reason with solutions creating further complications. Within the fields of resource management and environmental issues, wicked problems are highlighted by their scientific uncertainty and lack of technological solutions (Gunderson, 1999).

The Cod biomass is certainly a wicked problem given the complexity of issues ranging from lack of solid scientific data about the stock, political interference in fishery management, lack of a strategic recovery mission, land-locked decision-makers, multiple stakeholders from highly-paid lobbyists to lowly-paid harvesters,lack of community engagement and leadership vision, foreign overfishing on straddling stocks, as well as cultural impacts; and there are the multiple solutions that have been advanced to improve the fishery, with most ignored.

According to the authors of "In Cod We Trust - Cod in Atlantic Canada" (2015) ... "The persistence of the problem is contributing to the instability of the social, economic, and environmental aspects." 

In 2003, the federal and provincial governments did get together to form a Cod Recovery Action Team, but there is little evidence  there was any strategic work or advancements on the report and recommendations which followed.   Still, the Cod stocks amble along the road to recovery, aided primarily and ironically, it seems, by  Cod's good Samaritan  - climate change which has created more favourable ocean conditions like warmer waters.

Long-time NL fisheries advocate, Gus Etchegary - who entered the fishery three years before Confederation in 1949 - has continuously stressed that the rebuilding of not just the Cod stock but every other species is the most important goal of our province and country; yet, he feels his message falls on deaf ears:

"Decision-makers do not understand that fish, like every other resource oil, minerals  etc., has to be available in volume and quality. The fishermen cannot earn a living, the processors on the assembly line cannot make a good living and the industry operator cannot make a sufficient profit to pay the harvester nor the processor.  Unless the industry responds to market demands with the variety of quality products required they cannot get the returns from the market or compete with well-managed industries in advanced fishing nations."

So, while the Cod stocks are slowing coming back to our waters, the road ahead is still a long one - and a challenging one, including how to  achieve the 3 Rs - Rebuild, Rebuild, Rebuild.  

This is underscored by the stats in the 2014 John Sackton report  which reveals that the 2014 Cod landings in Newfoundland and Labrador amounted to just over 11,000 tonnes — less than .005 per cent of total Atlantic cod that year, which totalled 1.3 million tonnes.  And DFO's most recent assessment of Northern Cod states that the iconic fish is still in "the critical zone".   The fact that it is still only at 26% of its LFP(Limited Reference Point) 25 years later signals that "the stock is considered to have suffered serious harm and the ability to produce good recruitment is seriously impaired."   

In the meantime, we have to keep an eye on the all-important quality assurance factor  that will ensure our markets; and then there is the infrastructure that will be required to be kept in place and advanced to process Cod as it goes through the various stages of recovery.

Authors of "In Cod We Trust" (Ben Watkins, Alexandre Schoch, Michael Webb, Timothy Wong)  state that - With the many stakeholders and potential economic benefits/losses, the next steps taken are very important ones. There are strategies that have been implemented previously, both for cod and other fish species that have experienced over exploitation. Popular methods include, Marine Protected Areas (MPA), seasonal regulations and quotas.

Still, we have a wicked problem a quarter of a century in, after a near collapse of the stock- to elevate King Cod back to its historic throne as a global powerhouse.  

To do so will require wickedly good collaborative solutions - sooner rather than later;
and in the end, it needs to start with an abundance of Cod.

Codspeed to all of us on this important mission-possible.

-30-

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